| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Indiana | 14-27 | 1564.5 | +34.7 | 1599.2 | 10.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | North Carolina Central | 54-6 | 1599.2 | +52.4 | 1651.6 | 97.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Virginia Tech | 45-26 | 1651.6 | +80.0 | 1731.6 | 48.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Liberty | 21-7 | 1753.2 | -17.6 | 1735.6 | 86.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 47-7 | 1735.6 | +43.6 | 1779.2 | 87.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Marshall | 24-48 | 1779.2 | -71.2 | 1708.0 | 79.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | James Madison | 27-63 | 1708.0 | -75.7 | 1632.3 | 54.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | App State | 24-21 | 1632.3 | -19.0 | 1613.3 | 78.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 31-6 | 1613.3 | +28.3 | 1641.6 | 88.8% |
| 13 | Nov 13 2025 | W | Troy | 33-0 | 1636.7 | +38.6 | 1675.3 | 66.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 45-10 | 1675.3 | +37.2 | 1712.5 | 77.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Georgia State | 27-10 | 1712.5 | -9.6 | 1702.9 | 92.3% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | W | South Florida | 24-10 | 1701.1 | +33.0 | 1734.1 | 29.2% |